Exit Polls 2026: BJP Leads Bengal, DMK Set for Tamil Nadu

Synopsis

The 2026 assembly elections for West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry have held up a mixed bag of exit polls with a split verdict for Bengal, a DMK win in Tamil Nadu, the return of a Congress-led UDF in Kerala, a BJP sweep in Assam and a shift towards AINRC in Puducherry

Exit Polls 2026: Uncertainty in Bengal, Stability in the South

India's Biggest Election Season Likely to Produce Fractious Result With the votes counting down in the 2026 Indian state assembly elections in four states and a Union Territory, the exit polls released by a slew of agencies offer a varied electoral landscape - of tight contests in the east, the status quo in the south and virtual certainty in the northeast.

The elections were held in West Bengal (294 seats), Tamil Nadu (234 seats), Kerala (140 seats), Assam (126 seats) and Puducherry (30 seats). The majority markers in Bengal (148), Tamil Nadu (118), Kerala (71), Assam (64) and Puducherry (16) mean much is at stake in the nation's political landscape.

West Bengal: A House Divided

West Bengal is the most closely fought battleground this year. Exit polls have delivered wide-ranging estimates, so it's premature for our projections.

Matrize has the BJP on 146-161 seats and TMC on 125-140, while P-Marq is even more favourable to the BJP with 150-175 seats versus 118-138 for TMC. Today's Chanakya, the most favourable to the BJP, has the saffron alliance at 181-203 to the Trinamool's 89-111. Poll Diary also has BJP at 142-171.

But Peoples Pulse presents an upside-down picture - TMC at 177-187 and BJP at 95-110. JVC has both parties in a close contest at 138-159 for BJP and 131-152 for TMC.

The West Bengal Assembly at present is comprised of TMC: 220, BJP: 71, and Congress: 1. A strong showing for the BJP (Matrize and P-Marq's numbers) or a good performance (Today's Chanakya) would be one of the largest political upset wins of the state's post-Independence era.

Tamil Nadu: DMK's Status Quo and the TVK Factor

In Tamil Nadu, most of the exit polls show the DMK-led alliance regaining majority, and easily so. Four out of six pollsters - Matrize, Peoples Pulse, P-MARQ and Peoples Insight - have the DMK+ winning 120-145 seats, comfortably over the majority required (118). In the present assembly, DMK+ has 158 seats and AIADMK+ has 69.

But the bigger story is the emergence of actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). Whereas other polls estimate TVK's seat share to be in the 10-40 range, Axis My India has given the new political party a remarkable 98-120 seats - a projection that would forever change the Tamil politics' landscape. At the same time, Axis My India has the DMK at 92-110 and ADMK at a record-low 22-32 seats.

The range of TVK projections - 10 to 120 - shows the uncertainty in a party's first electoral contest. Counting day results will be watched for lessons on the viability of the celebrity parties.

Kerala: UDF Likely to Win After 10 Years

Kerala's exit polls are the most consistent: the United Democratic Front led by the Congress is set to win power for the first time in a decade, ousting the incumbent Left Democratic Front led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

Axis My India projects UDF to win between 78-90 seats, and LDF 49-62. Peoples Pulse has UDF at 75-85 and LDF at 55-65. P-Marq gives UDF 71–79 and LDF 62–69. Vote Vibe and Peoples Insight also give the lead to UDF.

All pollsters show the BJP winning a minimal number of seats (0-14) - only Peoples Insight gives a double-digit option of 10-14. In the current assembly, the LDF has 92 seats and UDF 40.

If the polls hold up, it would validate Kerala's cycle of LDF and UDF alternating power every five years.

Assam: Third Time Lucky for BJP

In Assam, all exit polls are consistent in giving power to BJP+ and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma for another term, possibly a third one. Axis My India gives BJP+ 88-100 and INC+'s 24-36. Matrize has 85-95 for the BJP. JVC projects 88–101.

The assembly is currently at BJP+: 81, Congress+: 27, AIUDF: 15. Its third term will establish the BJP's hold in Assam, which it first won in 2016, ousting the Congress after 15 years.

Puducherry: AINRC Likely to Return

In the Union Territory of Puducherry, which has 30 seats and a majority mark of 16, exit polls show that the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) will be back in power. The Praja Poll has the AINRC-led NRC coalition winning between 19 and 25 seats, Kamakhya Analytics 17-24, Peoples Pulse 16-19 and Axis My India 16-20 seats. Congress is between 4 and 12 seats.

The Numbers' Impact on Indian Politics

The 2026 state elections have far-reaching consequences. In West Bengal, a BJP win would be the party's first majority government in the state, shifting the eastern India's political landscape. Kerala and Tamil Nadu will see whether old political dynasties and coalitions can hold onto a more volatile youth vote. And in Assam, a third successive term for the BJP would confirm its position in a critical border state.

It's worth remembering, though, that exit polls have often been off the mark in Indian elections. They are suggestive, rather than binding. Ultimately, the people will have the final say - counting day will reveal whether the polls were right.

The official election results will be announced on the counting date announced by the Election Commission of India.