India's Monsoon Runs About 14 Per Cent Short as El Niño Strengthens

Synopsis

India Meteorological Department (IMD) data shows that the southwest monsoon has been 14 per cent short of normal since June, and the month of September is expected to be less than the average, due to the strengthening of El Niño. Sowing of kharif crops has also picked up pace after a sluggish June but pulses, oilseeds and rice are issues of concern. There are huge regional disparities, with some farmers reporting withering crops in the south peninsula, the east and Marathwada being the worst hit among others.

Precipitation from the southwest monsoon has been roughly 14 per cent deficient from the normal since June in the country, while the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts September to be deficient too as El Niño becomes more robust. The cumulative rainfall was 14% deficient till September 7 and IMD's outlooks for the month is below normal.

There have been extremes this season. June was the fifth drier of all Junes in a 100 years with rainfall being 40 per cent lower. Rain has started to pick up since July, boosting sowing. With four lows, August was still 16.3 per cent below normal and the IMD noted it as being the warmest August since 1901, with a mean temperature of 28.01°C. The deficiency during June to August was 13.8 per cent.

Where the rain fell short

As of August 31, 47 per cent of the country (350 districts) experienced deficient or very deficient rainfall. The southern peninsula was 24.2 per cent short and East and Northeast India 25.7 per cent.

The shortfall on the peninsula was 27 per cent a week later. Of the 741 districts that were assessed for June to August, 42 per cent had less than normal rainfall while 39 per cent had normal rainfall. Below normal rainfall is likely to occur in September, with 47% of the country's rain expected to be deficient, predicts IMD.

This unevenness of the season is evident from Maharashtra. In July, the state received 40 per cent more than the normal rainfall, followed by 46 per cent less than the rainfall for the month of August. This reduced the season to 12 per cent below normal and left 17 districts short of normal from the remaining time while Marathwada was 30 per cent behind.

The divisional commissioner's office has revealed in a PTI report on Friday that the deficit in Marathwada stood at 37.3 per cent despite the heavy rains on Thursday. The IMD credited the August difference to deficient cyclone movement over towards Gujarat and Rajasthan.

The outlook for El Niño

Strong El Niño conditions are observed over the equatorial Pacific, and are forecast to get stronger, the IMD says. INCOIS has given an 80-98 per cent chance of El Niño being the prevailing phase during August 2026 to March 2027. Conditions in the Indian Ocean Dipole are neutral, but a positive phase may have some ability to offset the impact of El Niño, and some international institutions predict a change over the September timeframe.

The IMD says in September, the rainfall is likely to be 91 per cent of the long period average. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the Director General of IMD, stated that parts of the north-west, north-east, east and east-central parts of India as well as isolated areas in the south peninsula may still get normal to above normal rains.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its outlook for September rainfall as "most likely to be below normal.

Sowing for kharif crop has greatly progressed. Planting of 35 million hectares was underway by early July, compared with 44.3 million hectares a year ago. It reached 105.67 million hectares by August 21 which was 1.5 per cent lower than the previous year, mainly in paddy, maize and soybean.

By September 4, 108.6 million ha, 1.63 per cent below the normal acreage of 110.4 million was reported by Business Standard. Approximately 55 to 60 per cent of the net sown area is rainfed and agriculture ministry had earlier identified 111 districts as high-risk with poor irrigation coverage.

Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan had instructed the officials to prepare contingency plans in June for the states where the impact of El Niño was likely to be higher.

It's worse in some areas. Amruta Chavan, a farmer in Hingoli district's Aundha Nagnath taluka, sowed soybean in seven acres of land and was forced to run a rotavator through the withered standing crop, according to a local news report.

According to the same report, the Parbhani area is a month behind in rainfall. Data released by the state's agriculture department indicated that 37.21 per cent of the sowed land in Beed and 27.83 per cent in Jalna was damaged, while the official survey of crop damage was to be conducted after October 5 based on the state's norms.

What comes next

Pulses, oilseeds, rice and other crops that rely on the rains for development could require special focus, the department of Economic Affairs said in the monthly review issued on August 31. A continued El Niño increases the potential risk to yields and food prices, it added.

The four-month season concludes on Sept. 30, and the final analysis will reveal if the shortfall in June was made up for later in the season.