Black Sea Disruptions Push Bangladesh Back to Indian Wheat After Four-Year Gap

Synopsis

After India lifted its export ban in late August, Bangladeshi importers have placed orders for over 200,000 tonnes of Indian wheat, Bloomberg reports. The sales are the first substantial ones since 2022, as shipping disruptions in the Black Sea have pushed up global prices. Delivered $305-326 a tonne (primarily rail) beat the competition. The price of flour in Dhaka has increased by 17% over the past month.

Bangladesh again purchases Indian wheat. Since the restrictions were lifted in late August, importers have booked 200,000-plus tonnes, more than any since 2022, according to people familiar with the situation. The curbs were not on imports in Bangladesh but exports in India.

The reasons for the reopening of the trade

Two forces converged. India's abundance spurred it to end its export ban and the disruption of trade across the Black Sea caused prices to skyrocket around the world.

Frequent port and terminal attacks have hindered deliveries from one of the globe's leading exporting areas.

Abhinav Vijay, director at Agrocorp International, cautioned that there might be an opportunity for Indian wheat in neighbouring countries.

Having been dependent on others in the past

Bangladesh has a huge interest in the matter. It has to import wheat of over 7 million tonnes per year; prior to India's ban, India was supplying almost 70% of it. India has limited food exports because of rising domestic prices and food security concerns due to a heat hit crop.

Dhaka diversified. Buyers looked to Argentina, Canada, Russia and Ukraine, and as much as 40% of imports came from the Black Sea region. It is this exposure that has now been impacted by the disruptions.

Price and logistics

It's about proximity. Delivered prices for most Indian shipments are forecast to range from $305 to $326 a tonne – mainly by rail. Taslim Shahriar from the Meghna Group of Industries stated that the wheat price in Australia is now above $450 per tonne while it used to be below $380.

Affordability, not availability

Vladimir Zinkovski, with S&P Global Energy, put the constraint in a different way. He said that while the availability of rice is an issue in Bangladesh, affordability will be the problem that will make consumers choose rice.

It's a pressure that's made apparent in the retail space. The state-run Trading Corporation reported that refined wheat flour has increased by 17% in the last month in Dhaka.

Regional ripple

Bangladesh is not the only country. Sri Lankan importers purchased some 60,000 tonnes of Indian wheat before its shipment at prices of around $325 per tonne. It's a broader trend the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)'s Foreign Agricultural Service views.

It predicts that in India wheat exports will more than double to 2 million tonnes in 2026/27 and has already been rising to Bangladesh and Nepal.

Indian wheat is now ready to compete on international markets for the first time in five years due to its availability, easing of export restrictions and the turmoil in the Black Sea region.

Balanced perspective

Partially opened. In 2026, India was able to resume limited exports under specific quotas, after almost 4 years of restrictions. Indian policy has changed in the past, and a market analysis reads, “The key risks to monitor for are domestic wheat pricing and government export policy.”

Lower price of Indian grain reduces grain import burden for Bangladesh, but does not eliminate exposure to Indian grain market. Exports provide India with a fresh market, but are placed on a pedestal of domestic price stability, a goal the government has long been striving for.

What to watch

The three milestones that will give an idea if it is a blip or a trend are further Bangladeshi bookings after the first 200,000, any changes in the India quota conditions and the condition of shipping through the Black Sea. A fourth is the affordability of the flour in Dhaka, as recommended by Zinkovski.